A leaked report has revealed that if Paramount follows through on its threat to leave California, up to 57,980 jobs could be permanently lost across the state. The study was commissioned by Paramount itself and conducted by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation. It is dated September 10 and estimates that a full relocation would cost California between 28,990 and 57,980 jobs across all industries. The report also calculates that the state would lose about $10.6 billion to $21.2 billion in annual economic output and up to $1.17 billion in annual state and local taxes if Paramount fully moves out of California. The draft has not been officially published by LAEDC. Its estimates have not been independently verified.
One of the key points in the analysis is a comparison between settling the Warner Bros. merger lawsuit and walking away from California, according to cosmicbook.news. If Paramount completes the merger and keeps its commitment to release 30 theatrical movies a year for three years, the draft estimates that commitment would support 1,020 to 2,760 job-years statewide and generate $377.7 million to $1.01 billion in economic output over five years.
If the company instead chooses to leave, even a partial exit would come with significant costs. Under the report’s slower relocation scenario, California would lose between 2,750 and 5,550 job-years over five years, equal to an average of about 550 to 1,110 job-years per year. The full exit could bring the job loss figure as high as 57,980, according to the report. Paramount has separately asked the court for a $1.88 billion bond to address the costs of delaying the merger, a request opposed by California, 11 other states, and the Writers Guild of America.
Beyond just job numbers, the report warns that the economic damage would extend far beyond payrolls. Paramount has been pushing this message throughout the week leading up to a major deadline. On Friday, a report by Charles Gasparino detailed David Ellison’s strategy to push for a settlement. Ellison is trying to convince California’s own Democrats that Rob Bonta’s lawsuit could hurt the state economically. A separate Los Angeles County analysis released in August estimated that the merger itself could put nearly 4,500 film and television jobs at risk over three years. It put the broader impact at 10,360 job-years when indirect and induced effects are included.
This leaked report serves as a numerical argument for that approach. October 1 is the date that David Ellison has reportedly set for settlement talks to be underway before Paramount begins the process of moving the company out of California. Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas are named as possible destinations for the company. That same day also marks when Paramount will begin accruing a $7 million-a-day ticking fee for Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders. The ticking fee is payable only if the merger eventually closes.
Settlement talks are scheduled to take place over two consecutive days at the end of October. The report gives Paramount another economic argument ahead of those negotiations. Variety reported that the conference is a standard part of civil procedure and does not mean a settlement is near.
Matt McGloin, editor-in-chief of Cosmic Book News, has been covering the entertainment industry for years. He has reported major industry scoops, including revealing the title of Avengers: Endgame before its official announcement. McGloin’s site also helped promote Marvel Comics projects like Guardians of the Galaxy and Nova through exclusive previews and interviews. He has also reported on major retooling efforts such as Marvel’s Daredevil: Born Again before they were officially confirmed.
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