Natural Resources Wales says flooding can strike far from rivers and coasts, although the immediate five-day risk remains very low.
Natural Resources Wales is urging people across Wales to prepare for possible flooding this autumn, warning that homes and businesses can be affected even when they are far from major rivers or the coast. The agency says long-range forecasts point to a greater chance of wetter and windier conditions in the coming months, although there is no immediate widespread flood threat.
As of October 11, NRW’s five-day forecast rated the flood risk across Wales as **very low through October 15**. The new warning is therefore about seasonal preparation rather than an active emergency.
Surface-water flooding is one reason officials say people should not assume they are safe because they live away from a river. Heavy rain can overwhelm drains and send water across roads, gardens and properties with little warning. NRW says flooding from surface water and small watercourses can develop so quickly and locally that there may not be enough time to issue a formal warning.
The agency estimates that more than **274,500 homes and businesses in Wales** are currently classed as being at risk of flooding. About one in seven properties is considered at risk, while climate projections indicate that the number could rise substantially during the coming decades.
Jeremy Parr of Natural Resources Wales said people should think about what they would do if flooding reached their home or community. He said the agency often hears from people after serious floods who had never experienced flooding before and did not believe it could happen to them.
That concern is especially strong in Monmouth, where residents are still recovering from severe flooding caused by Storm Claudia in November 2025. The River Monnow burst its banks and water spread through parts of the town, flooding homes, businesses and vehicles.
Longtime Monmouth resident Malcolm Butcher recalled the flood arriving in the early hours of the morning. He told BBC Wales that the water was “absolutely raging” and said 18 cars on his road were lost. He also noted that three rivers meet around Monmouth, making the town particularly sensitive to rapidly changing water levels.
The flooding in Monmouth was not simply a reminder of river risk. Monmouthshire County Council says the county can be affected by surface water, groundwater, ordinary watercourses, main rivers and the sea. In September, the council approved an updated Local Flood Risk Management Strategy that places greater emphasis on climate change, community preparedness, sustainable drainage and natural flood management.
The council said the strategy was developed after recent severe weather and recognizes that more frequent and intense storms are expected to increase flood risk. It also calls for closer coordination with Natural Resources Wales, which is responsible for managing flood risk from main rivers including the Monnow, Wye and Usk.
NRW’s own annual flood-risk report says climate projections point to more intense extreme weather, including heavier summer storms and prolonged wet periods in winter. The agency says those changes are expected to increase peak river flows and the risk of flash flooding. Updated Welsh climate-change allowances published in March 2026 include a 10% increase in rainfall allowances and increases of 5% to 10% in peak river flows over the next century, based on central estimates.
Officials are also concerned that relatively few people who can receive direct flood warnings have signed up. NRW’s warning service is available to 181,158 properties in Wales, but only 48,844 were signed up for alerts by phone or email, according to figures cited by BBC Wales. That is about **27% of eligible properties**.
The warning service covers around 90% of properties at risk from main rivers or the sea. It does not cover every form of flooding, however. Surface-water flooding and flooding from small watercourses can occur too quickly for advance alerts, which is why officials also recommend checking local flood-risk maps and the five-day forecast.
People in at-risk areas are being advised to make a household flood plan, keep important documents and valuables in safer locations and know how to turn off gas, electricity and water if it can be done safely. NRW also advises residents to prepare essential supplies, monitor local river levels and avoid walking, cycling or driving through floodwater.
Monmouthshire County Council also recommends checking that insurance documents are current and provide adequate flood coverage. The advice is particularly important because a property does not need to sit beside a major waterway to be exposed to flooding from intense rainfall, blocked drainage systems or smaller streams. Residents who are uncertain about their exposure can use NRW’s online flood-risk tools to check a postcode and review risks from several sources.
Communities are also being encouraged to plan together. Jane Roche, who runs a café and fishmongers beside the River Teifi in Cardigan, said developing a community flood plan helped local residents understand what to do when warnings are issued and gave them more confidence about supporting one another during severe weather.
The autumn warning comes after several years of damaging storms in Wales, including Storm Dennis in 2020, Storms Bert and Darragh in 2024 and Storm Claudia in 2025. NRW says climate change is expected to make some weather extremes more frequent and intense, increasing the importance of preparation even in places that have not flooded before.
For now, the official short-term outlook remains calm, with very low flood risk forecast across Wales through midweek. The broader message from flood agencies is to use that quiet period to check local risk, sign up for alerts where available and decide in advance what to do if conditions deteriorate quickly.
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