Ukraine has carried out successful drone strikes on key Russian infrastructure, including an oil refinery and an airfield. These operations are part of a broader strategy to attack deep within Russian territory, aiming to disrupt both energy and military capabilities. Moscow confirmed eight deaths from these attacks, adding to the growing number of casualties in the region. The strikes have drawn attention from global markets, which are watching closely for signs of how this may affect the ongoing war. The actions show Ukraine’s growing ability to carry out strategic missions inside Russia, which could influence expectations about Russian military progress. Prediction markets now show a lower chance of Russia advancing into Ukrainian cities like Sloviansk by the end of 2026. The probability of such an advance is currently priced at just 21% in the market, suggesting a drop in confidence after recent events. Market observers may be adjusting their views based on Ukraine’s demonstrated capacity to strike major targets within Russia.
In addition to the oil and airfield targets, Ukrainian drones also hit a Wildberries warehouse in the Samara region. This location was more than 500 miles from the border with Ukraine, showing how far these operations can reach. The company, Russia’s largest online marketplace, is often compared to Amazon in the country. Ukraine had previously targeted Wildberries sites near Moscow and in the Tambov region on July 18. These attacks continued across western and southern Russia, as well as in occupied Crimea. In the Saratov region, a Ukrainian drone struck a residential building, killing two people. Both cities have been regular targets for Ukraine in recent years due to their strategic importance. Engels, a city with a military airbase, and Saratov, which has an oil refinery, have both seen repeated attacks.
Russia’s defense forces intercepted 635 Ukrainian drones in one night, including those flying over Crimea and the Black Sea. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not say how many drones were launched or how many hit their targets. At the same time, Russia launched 133 drones against Ukraine during the night, with 24 hitting their intended targets. In response, Ukrainian forces struck back at Russian cities like Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, causing deaths. In the Bashkortostan region, Russian air defenses stopped a large drone attack on industrial sites in Ufa. In the Udmurt Republic, three civilians died and two others were injured during a Ukrainian drone strike. Local officials said air defenses shot down two drones and prevented an attack on a civilian area.
Both sides continue to exchange drone attacks, showing a rise in the scale and intensity of their operations. Civilian deaths have increased this year as Russia has used long-range missiles more often, according to UN reports. Ukraine’s campaign includes strikes on energy and retail sites in an effort to pressure Russia into peace talks. In the Belgorod region, a Ukrainian drone killed four people, including a young girl near a playground. A separate strike in the Saratov region also caused two deaths. In another case, a drone attack in Udmurtia killed three civilians and injured two more. Russian officials said one person died in Zaporizhzhia after a guided bomb hit a residential building. Another strike in Kharkiv killed a postal worker when a terminal was set on fire.
The United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran in February, which has stalled peace negotiations. Both Russia and Ukraine deny intentionally targeting civilians in their operations. The drone attacks have become a regular feature of the war, affecting both military and civilian areas in both countries. Wildberries has been one of the main retail targets for Ukraine, with over a dozen depots struck in recent weeks. These attacks are part of Kyiv’s broader effort to weaken Russia’s war economy and increase public pressure.
The ongoing drone exchanges show that both sides are stepping up their offensive capabilities. As the conflict continues, further strikes and responses may shape how the war develops in the coming months.
IMAGE: A.Savin / Wikimedia Commons (FAL)